Grand Hamad Stadium · Referee N. A. Al Sawan · Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Sailiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Arabi SC and 1.23 for Al-Sailiya, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Al-Arabi SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Arabi SC win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Arabi SC home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Sailiya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Al-Arabi SC
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 2-2 (D)
Al-Sailiya
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 2-0 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2026-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 1-2 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2025-12-06T13:00:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 0-3 Al-Sailiya (QSL Cup)
- 2025-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 0-4 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2024-05-06T17:00:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 2-1 Al-Sailiya (Emir Cup)
- 2023-04-25T15:45:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 7-1 Al-Sailiya (Emir Cup)
- 2023-03-17T16:45:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 4-1 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2022-09-06T17:20:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 5-1 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2022-02-14T16:30:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 0-2 Al-Sailiya (Emir Cup)
- 2022-01-13T13:20:00.000Z · Al-Arabi SC 1-0 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Arabi SC win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.