Grand Hamad Stadium · Referee A. Al Jassim · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Al-Arabi SC vs Al Shamal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Al-Arabi SC and 1.12 for Al Shamal, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Al-Arabi SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Arabi SC win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Arabi SC home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Shamal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Arabi SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Al-Arabi SC and 1.12 for Al Shamal, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Al-Arabi SC
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 2-2 (D)
Al Shamal
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tractor Sazi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Arabi SC win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.