· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Al Arabi vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al Arabi and 0.98 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Al Arabi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Arabi win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Arabi home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sahel away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.2%
- 2–010.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.8%
Recent form
Al Arabi
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Nejmeh · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 3-3 (D)
Al Sahel
- 2026-10-24T16:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T16:45:00.000Z · Al Arabi 2-0 Al Sahel (Emir Cup)
- 2025-04-01T15:30:00.000Z · Al Arabi 2-1 Al Sahel (Crown Prince Cup)
- 2023-02-20T16:20:00.000Z · Al Arabi 2-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2022-10-06T16:15:00.000Z · Al Arabi 0-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2021-05-14T17:20:00.000Z · Al Arabi 3-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2021-03-15T14:10:00.000Z · Al Arabi 2-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2020-11-19T15:30:00.000Z · Al Arabi 2-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2020-02-07T13:40:00.000Z · Al Arabi 2-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2019-10-24T16:55:00.000Z · Al Arabi 1-2 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2017-04-20T14:30:00.000Z · Al Arabi 7-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Arabi win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.