Sabah Al Salem Stadium · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Al Arabi vs Al Salmiyah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al Arabi and 2.25 for Al Salmiyah, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Al Salmiyah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Salmiyah win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Arabi home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Salmiyah away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Salmiyah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 29% / 20% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Al Arabi and 2.25 for Al Salmiyah, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–16.2%
Recent form
Al Arabi
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jahra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-3 (D)
Al Salmiyah
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Tadhamon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kazma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Fahaheel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Salmiyah win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.