Al Arabi Stadium · Analysis updated 20:22 UTC
Al Arabi vs Al Urooba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Arabi and 1.37 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Al Urooba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Urooba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Urooba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Al Arabi and 1.37 for Al Urooba, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Al Arabi
Al Urooba
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Ittifaq · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Dubai City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Emirates Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Presidents Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Urooba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Fujairah SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Arabi | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Palm City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Ittifaq | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Dibba Al Hisn | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Emirates Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Al Hamriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Dubai City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Forte Virtus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Gulf United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Bataeh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.