Hisor Central Stadium · Referee W. L. Wong · Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
Al Arabi vs Wathba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Al Arabi and 1.05 for Wathba, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Wathba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Arabi home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Wathba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wathba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 31% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Al Arabi and 1.05 for Wathba, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Al Arabi
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jahra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-3 (D)
Wathba
- 2026-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordoi Bishkek · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Shaykhun SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaish · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Foutoua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabala · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regar-TadAZ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Paro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Hang Yuen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Wathba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Manila Digger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Al Qadsia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Pusamania Borneo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Nejmeh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Yangon United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Ittihad | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Fortis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kasuka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ahal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Central Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Tainan City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Dordoi Bishkek | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shan United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Ezra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Goa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Karketu Dili | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Ulaanbaatar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Al Arabi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Bangladesh Police | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Istiqlol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Muras United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Abu Muslim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Maziya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.