Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Al Bataeh vs Al Hamriyah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.22 for Al Hamriyah, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Al Bataeh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Bataeh home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hamriyah away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Bataeh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Al Bataeh and 1.22 for Al Hamriyah, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Al Bataeh
- 2026-10-11T13:10:00.000Z · A vs Dibba Al Hisn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Palm City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Hamriyah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Emirates Club · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 1-2 (L)
Al Hamriyah
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Thaid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Bataeh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Fujairah SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Palm City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:10:00.000Z · H vs Forte Virtus · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Emirates Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Palm City | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gulf United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Dubai City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.