Al-Batin Club Stadium · Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Al Baten vs Al Bukayriyah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.22 for Al Bukayriyah, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Al Baten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Baten win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Baten home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Bukayriyah away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Baten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Al Baten and 1.22 for Al Bukayriyah, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Al Baten
- 2026-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Faisaly FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Taee · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Al Bukayriyah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Abha · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-21T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Anwar · 2-3 (L)
Al Bukayriyah
- 2026-10-20T15:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Orubah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Zulfi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Taee · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Damac · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Jandal · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Jabalain | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Al Najma | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Adalah | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Anwar | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Jeddah Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Baten win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.