· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Al Bidda SC vs Al-Gharafa B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Al Bidda SC and 0.86 for Al-Gharafa B, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Al Bidda SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Bidda SC win
73.2% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Bidda SC home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Bidda SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Al Bidda SC and 0.86 for Al-Gharafa B, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Al Bidda SC
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa B · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Khor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-04-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Waab · 0-2 (L)
Al-Gharafa B
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-6 (L)
- 2017-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Umm Salal B · 10-1 (W)
- 2017-03-05T16:05:00.000Z · H vs El Jaish SC B · 2-1 (W)
- 2017-02-12T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya II · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Bidda SC win, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.