Al Bukayriyah Club Stadium · Referee K. Al Rashdi · Analysis updated 07:25 UTC
Al Bukayriyah vs Al Anwar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Bukayriyah and 1.38 for Al Anwar, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Al Anwar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Bukayriyah home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Anwar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Anwar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Al Bukayriyah and 1.38 for Al Anwar, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +3.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 45.5% | 47.3% | 2.11 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.85 | 31.8% | 33.1% | 3.02 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 66.5% | 66.9% | 1.49 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.3% | 40.6% | 2.46 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.5% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 60.0% | 59.4% | 1.68 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 52.7% | 1.90 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 29.4% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -3.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al Bukayriyah
- 2026-10-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Zulfi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Taee · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Damac · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Jandal · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al-Adalah · 0-1 (L)
Al Anwar
- 2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Saqer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Taee · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Hajer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Jabalain | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Al Najma | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Anwar | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Al-Adalah | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Jeddah Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Al Orubah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Bukayriyah | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.