Al Bukayriyah Club Stadium · Analysis updated 10:50 UTC
Al Bukayriyah vs Al Ula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.59 expected goals for Al Bukayriyah and 2.18 for Al Ula, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Al Ula the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Ula win
74.0% probability
Expected goals
0.59 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Bukayriyah home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ula away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ula to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 9% / 17% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.59 goals for Al Bukayriyah and 2.18 for Al Ula, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.9%
- 0–113.7%
- 0–310.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Al Bukayriyah
- 2026-10-20T15:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Orubah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Zulfi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Taee · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Damac · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Jandal · 1-4 (L)
Al Ula
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Jeddah Club · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Damac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Jabalain | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Al Najma | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Adalah | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Anwar | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Jeddah Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ula win, at 74.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.