· Analysis updated 06:10 UTC
Al Buqa'a vs Al Faisaly Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Al Buqa'a and 1.32 for Al Faisaly, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Al Faisaly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Faisaly win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Buqa'a home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Faisaly away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Faisaly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 18% / 29% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Al Buqa'a and 1.32 for Al Faisaly, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.0%
- 0–014.4%
- 0–212.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
Al Buqa'a
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Salt · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ordon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Hussein · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Doqarah · 1-0 (W)
Al Faisaly
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ramtha · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Salt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Buqa'a · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Jazeera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Wihdat | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Buqa'a | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al Ramtha | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Salt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Hussein | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Al Arabi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Doqarah | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Shabab Al Ordon | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Faisaly win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.