· Analysis updated 07:33 UTC
Al Dhafra U23 vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al Dhafra U23 and 1.98 for Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23, a combined total of 4.29. That distribution gives Al Dhafra U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Dhafra U23 win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
2.31 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Dhafra U23 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Dhafra U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Al Dhafra U23 and 1.98 for Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23, a combined 4.29 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.3%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Al Dhafra U23
- 2026-09-12T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Hatta U23 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda U23 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:55:00.000Z · H vs Khorfakkan U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Sharjah U23 · 1-5 (L)
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League U23 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain U23 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajman U23 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Wahda U23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Sharjah U23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Jazira U23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Dhafra U23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Ittihad Kalba U23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Wasl U23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | United FC U23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Hatta U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Al Nasr U23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | Khorfakkan U23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Bani Yas U23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Dhafra U23 win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.