Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium · Referee O. Al Ali · Analysis updated 06:03 UTC
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.73 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Al Wahda FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Wahda FC win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Dhafra home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Wahda FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Al-Dhafra
- 2026-10-24T12:55:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Sharjah FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Baniyas SC · 1-3 (L)
Al Wahda FC
- 2026-10-01T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Baniyas SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Sharjah FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Dhafra · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 1-0 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2025-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 1-3 Al Wahda FC (Presidents Cup)
- 2025-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 2-5 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2023-03-17T16:30:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 1-3 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 2-4 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2022-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 2-3 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2021-10-29T14:15:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 1-3 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2021-03-16T13:45:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 0-3 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2020-12-01T14:00:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 1-1 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
- 2020-03-14T13:45:00.000Z · Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al Wahda FC (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Wahda FC win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.