Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium · Referee M. K. Al Hoish · Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 1.95 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Ahli Jeddah win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Diriyah home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Al Diriyah and 1.95 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 20.9% | 22.1% | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.53 | 61.6% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.15 | 43.3% | 44.0% | 2.27 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 40.8% | 41.4% | 2.42 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 77.7% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 59.9% | 1.67 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 40.1% | 2.49 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.67 | 56.2% | 56.0% | 1.79 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 58.6% | 1.71 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.45 | 38.4% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.0% | 78.1% | 1.28 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.9% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al Diriyah
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 1-1 (D)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 2026-10-19T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Ahli Jeddah win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.