Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium · Referee M. A. Al Shammari · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Al-Duhail SC vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Duhail SC and 1.03 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Al-Duhail SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Duhail SC win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Duhail SC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Arabi SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Duhail SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Al-Duhail SC and 1.03 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Al-Duhail SC
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 1-1 (D)
Al-Arabi SC
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Duhail SC win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.