Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium · Referee M. Shrief · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Al-Duhail SC vs Al Sadd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Duhail SC and 1.60 for Al Sadd, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Al-Duhail SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Duhail SC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sadd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Duhail SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Al-Duhail SC and 1.60 for Al Sadd, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Al-Duhail SC
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 1-1 (D)
Al Sadd
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.