Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium · Referee A. Al Kharboush · Analysis updated 16:59 UTC
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.09 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Al-Ettifaq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Ettifaq win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Ettifaq home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Riyadh away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Al-Ettifaq
- 2026-09-11T15:25:00.000Z · A vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Faisaly FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Abha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 2-3 (L)
Al Riyadh
- 2026-10-11T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z · H vs NEOM · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 4-2 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
- 2026-04-09T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
- 2025-12-25T17:30:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
- 2025-04-17T15:40:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
- 2024-11-24T14:40:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
- 2024-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
- 2023-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Al-Ettifaq 0-1 Al Riyadh (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | NEOM | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Ettifaq win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.