· Analysis updated 12:58 UTC
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.41 for Al Baten, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Al-Faisaly FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Faisaly FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Baten away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.41 for Al Baten, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Al-Faisaly FC
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-0 (D)
Al Baten
- 2026-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Faisaly FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Taee · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Al Bukayriyah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Abha · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-21T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Anwar · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Jabalain | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Al Najma | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Adalah | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Anwar | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Jeddah Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.