Al Majma'ah Sport City · Referee A. Y. Zarban · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.83 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Al-Hazm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Hazm win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Faisaly FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Hazm away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Al-Faisaly FC
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-0 (D)
Al-Hazm
- 2026-10-22T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fayha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fateh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:50:00.000Z · H vs NEOM · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T15:50:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2025-02-04T15:20:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 0-1 Al-Hazm (Division 1)
- 2024-08-31T16:05:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 0-1 Al-Hazm (Division 1)
- 2023-05-01T16:20:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm (Division 1)
- 2022-12-19T14:50:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 Al-Hazm (Division 1)
- 2022-03-05T14:40:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2021-10-17T15:15:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2020-03-13T14:50:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2019-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2019-02-03T11:40:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 1-2 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Hazm win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.