· Referee M. Abu Shaqarah · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.91 for NEOM, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives NEOM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NEOM win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Faisaly FC home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NEOM away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEOM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.91 for NEOM, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Al-Faisaly FC
- 2026-09-11T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hazm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fateh · 1-1 (D)
NEOM
- 2026-09-13T16:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fateh · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Riyadh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 NEOM (Pro League)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 NEOM (King's Cup)
- 2025-05-05T16:50:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 1-4 NEOM (Division 1)
- 2025-01-06T12:25:00.000Z · Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 NEOM (Division 1)
King's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kholood | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Taawon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Ula | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | NEOM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Okhdood | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Riyadh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Wehda Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Jabalain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Abha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Al Orubah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Al Bukayriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Al Shabab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Al Anwar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Al-Ettifaq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Al-Faisaly FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Zulfi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Al-Adalah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Al-Raed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Diriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Al Najma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Al-Fateh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Damac | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Al Taee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Jeddah Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEOM win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.