Amman International Stadium · Referee Venkatesh Ramachandran · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Al Faisaly vs Al-Nahda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al Faisaly and 1.45 for Al-Nahda, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Al Faisaly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Faisaly home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Nahda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Faisaly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Al Faisaly and 1.45 for Al-Nahda, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Al Faisaly
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Salt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Buqa'a · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Doqarah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Wihdat · 0-0 (D)
Al-Nahda
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Ibri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · H vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Seeb · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al-Shabab · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Nasaf | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Khalidiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Kuwait | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Arkadag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Jazira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Gol Gohar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Muharraq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Nahda | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Al Taawon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Faisaly | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Shorta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Hussein | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | East Bengal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Seeb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Viettel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Adelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Svay Rieng | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Kuching FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.