Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.40 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al-Fateh home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.40 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Al-Fateh win36%

Draw26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–18.9%
1–08.6%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Al-Fateh

2026-10-22T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-15T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T16:20:00.000Z · A vs NEOM · 2-4 (L)

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-19T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	9	0	1	21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	8	1	1	15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	8	1	2	14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	7	2	1	10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	7	0	3	14	21
6	NEOM	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	5	3	3	1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	4	3	4	-2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	3	3	4	-7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	2	6	3	-7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	3	3	4	-8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	2	5	3	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	2	4	5	-4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	1	5	5	-7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	1	4	5	-9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	0	4	7	-14	4
18	Abha	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.