Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.13 for Al Diriyah, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Al Diriyah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Al Diriyah win

51.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.50 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al-Fateh home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Diriyah away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Diriyah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 16% / 32% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.13 for Al Diriyah, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Al-Fateh win16%

Draw32%

Al Diriyah win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals48%

Over 2.5 goals22%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

0–122.2%
0–019.7%
0–212.5%
1–111.1%
1–09.8%

Recent form

Al-Fateh

2026-10-22T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-15T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T16:20:00.000Z · A vs NEOM · 2-4 (L)

Al Diriyah

2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	9	0	1	21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	8	1	1	15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	8	1	2	14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	7	2	1	10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	7	0	3	14	21
6	NEOM	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	5	3	3	1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	4	3	4	-2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	3	3	4	-7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	2	6	3	-7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	3	3	4	-8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	2	5	3	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	2	4	5	-4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	1	5	5	-7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	1	4	5	-9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	0	4	7	-14	4
18	Abha	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al Diriyah win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.