Al Fateh club stadium · Referee M. Abu Shaqarah · Analysis updated 05:46 UTC
Al-Fateh vs Al Najma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.23 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Al-Fateh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Fateh win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Fateh home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Najma away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Fateh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.23 for Al Najma, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Al-Fateh
- 2026-10-22T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:20:00.000Z · A vs NEOM · 2-4 (L)
Al Najma
- 2026-10-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Hajer · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Damac · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T15:55:00.000Z · Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Najma (Pro League)
- 2026-01-16T13:40:00.000Z · Al-Fateh 1-1 Al Najma (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Fateh win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.