King Abdullah Sports City Stadium · Referee S. Al Hunfush · Analysis updated 08:47 UTC
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.68 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Al-Fayha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Fayha home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Fayha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Al-Fayha and 1.68 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Al-Fayha
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-25T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Taawon · 0-0 (D)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.