· Analysis updated 09:10 UTC
Al-Gharafa B vs Al Shamal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al-Gharafa B and 1.12 for Al Shamal II, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Al-Gharafa B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Gharafa B home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Gharafa B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Al-Gharafa B and 1.12 for Al Shamal II, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Al-Gharafa B
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-6 (L)
- 2017-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Umm Salal B · 10-1 (W)
- 2017-03-05T16:05:00.000Z · H vs El Jaish SC B · 2-1 (W)
- 2017-02-12T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya II · 1-5 (L)
Al Shamal II
- 2026-09-08T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Bidda SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Waab · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Kharaitiyat · 0-0 (D)
- 2015-04-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Sailiya B · 3-1 (W)
- 2015-04-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Umm Salal B · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.