· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Al-Gharafa B vs Muaither SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al-Gharafa B and 1.92 for Muaither SC, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Muaither SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muaither SC win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Gharafa B home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muaither SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muaither SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 17% / 22% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Al-Gharafa B and 1.92 for Muaither SC, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.6%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.1%
Recent form
Al-Gharafa B
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-6 (L)
- 2017-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Umm Salal B · 10-1 (W)
- 2017-03-05T16:05:00.000Z · H vs El Jaish SC B · 2-1 (W)
- 2017-02-12T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya II · 1-5 (L)
Muaither SC
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Khor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Rayyan SC B · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2016-02-15T13:45:00.000Z · Al-Gharafa B 0-3 Muaither SC (Second Division)
- 2015-04-05T15:15:00.000Z · Al-Gharafa B 2-2 Muaither SC (Second Division)
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muaither SC win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.