· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Al-Gharafa B vs Umm Salal B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for Al-Gharafa B and 2.18 for Umm Salal B, a combined total of 5.20. That distribution gives Al-Gharafa B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Gharafa B win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Gharafa B home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Umm Salal B away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Gharafa B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 17% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for Al-Gharafa B and 2.18 for Umm Salal B, a combined 5.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–26.0%
- 2–26.0%
- 3–15.5%
- 2–15.5%
- 4–24.6%
Recent form
Al-Gharafa B
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-6 (L)
- 2017-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Umm Salal B · 10-1 (W)
- 2017-03-05T16:05:00.000Z · H vs El Jaish SC B · 2-1 (W)
- 2017-02-12T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya II · 1-5 (L)
Umm Salal B
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya II · 3-3 (D)
- 2017-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 1-10 (L)
- 2017-03-05T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 0-7 (L)
- 2017-02-11T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Muaither B · 0-2 (L)
- 2017-02-05T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Lekhwiya SB B · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2017-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · Al-Gharafa B 10-1 Umm Salal B (Second Division)
- 2014-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Al-Gharafa B 1-2 Umm Salal B (Second Division)
- 2013-11-24T13:15:00.000Z · Al-Gharafa B 4-2 Umm Salal B (Second Division)
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Gharafa B win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.