Al-Gharafa vs Al Mesaimeer Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.14 for Al Mesaimeer, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Al-Gharafa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Al-Gharafa win

65.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al-Gharafa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Gharafa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.14 for Al Mesaimeer, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Al-Gharafa win66%

Draw18%

Al Mesaimeer win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–08.3%
1–17.8%
3–17.7%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Al-Gharafa

2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mesaimeer · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 1-4 (L)

Al Mesaimeer

2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Waab · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Kharaitiyat · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T14:15:00.000Z · H vs UMM Salal · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-24T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

QSL Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Shamal	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Al-Duhail SC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	UMM Salal	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Qatar SC	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Al Waab	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Al Wakrah	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Lusail City	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Al-Gharafa	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Muaither SC	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	Al Shahaniya	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Al-Rayyan SC	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Al Ahli Doha	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al Kharaitiyat	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Al-Markhiya	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Al-Sailiya	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Al-Arabi SC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Al Mesaimeer	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Al-Khor	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Al Bidda SC	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al-Gharafa win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.