· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Al-Ghazal vs Singida Black Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al-Ghazal and 1.98 for Singida Black Stars, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Singida Black Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Singida Black Stars win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Singida Black Stars away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Singida Black Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Al-Ghazal and 1.98 for Singida Black Stars, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Al-Ghazal
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 1-7 (L)
Singida Black Stars
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coastal Union · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dodoma Jiji · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ghazal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Singida Black Stars win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.