· Analysis updated 15:15 UTC
Al Hamriyah vs Al Fujairah SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Hamriyah and 1.93 for Al Fujairah SC, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Al Fujairah SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Hamriyah home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Fujairah SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Al Hamriyah
- 2026-10-17T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Dubai City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Urooba · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Thaid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Bataeh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Fujairah SC · 2-0 (W)
Al Fujairah SC
- 2026-10-23T12:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Palm City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Forte Virtus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dibba Al Hisn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazira Al Hamra · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:55:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 2-0 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 3-2 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2025-12-26T12:45:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 0-1 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2025-03-08T18:00:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 0-0 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2024-11-03T12:50:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 0-3 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2024-09-27T13:20:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 2-0 Al Fujairah SC (Presidents Cup)
- 2024-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 1-3 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2023-11-18T12:40:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 2-3 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2023-04-16T18:00:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 2-2 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
- 2022-12-17T12:45:00.000Z · Al Hamriyah 1-1 Al Fujairah SC (Division 1)
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Emirates Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Palm City | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gulf United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Dubai City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.