· Analysis updated 08:33 UTC
Al Hamriyah vs Al Urooba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al Hamriyah and 1.25 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Al Hamriyah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Hamriyah home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Urooba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hamriyah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Al Hamriyah and 1.25 for Al Urooba, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Al Hamriyah
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Thaid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Bataeh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Fujairah SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Palm City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:10:00.000Z · H vs Forte Virtus · 1-0 (W)
Al Urooba
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Ittifaq · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Dubai City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Emirates Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Al Thaid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Emirates Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Urooba | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Fujairah SC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Forte Virtus | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Hamriyah | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Al Bataeh | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Gulf United | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Palm City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Dubai City | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 15 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.