· Analysis updated 08:38 UTC
Al Hamriyah vs Dubai United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al Hamriyah and 1.41 for Dubai United, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Al Hamriyah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Hamriyah win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Hamriyah home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubai United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hamriyah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Al Hamriyah and 1.41 for Dubai United, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Al Hamriyah
- 2026-10-17T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Dubai City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Urooba · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Thaid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Bataeh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Fujairah SC · 2-0 (W)
Dubai United
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Dhafra · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Emirates Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Palm City | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gulf United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Dubai City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Hamriyah win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.