· Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
Al Hikma vs Tripoli SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Hikma and 1.27 for Tripoli SC, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Al Hikma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Hikma home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tripoli SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hikma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Al Hikma and 1.27 for Tripoli SC, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Al Hikma
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ansar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Nejmeh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Tadamon Sour · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Mabarrah · 4-2 (W)
Tripoli SC
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Mabarrah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahed · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ghazieh · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Sahel · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nejmeh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Tadamon Sour | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Ahed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Tripoli SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Al Mabarrah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Jwaaya FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.