Al Hilal Stadium · Analysis updated 23:32 UTC
Al Hilal Omdurman vs Aigle Noir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Hilal Omdurman and 0.86 for Aigle Noir, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Hilal Omdurman win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aigle Noir away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 25% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Al Hilal Omdurman and 0.86 for Aigle Noir, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sidama Bunna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
Aigle Noir
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rukinzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Vision · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayanza United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngozi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Hilal Omdurman win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.