Al Hilal Omdurman vs Gasogi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Hilal Omdurman and 0.47 for Gasogi United, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Al Hilal Omdurman win

56.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 0.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gasogi United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 30% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Al Hilal Omdurman and 0.47 for Gasogi United, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 27%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.

Match result (1X2)

Al Hilal Omdurman win56%

Draw30%

Gasogi United win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals25%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

1–022.2%
0–017.6%
2–014.1%
1–110.5%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Al Hilal Omdurman

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sidama Bunna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)

Gasogi United

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Soccer League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gorilla	6	3	2	1	2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Marines	4	2	1	1	4	7
4	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	3	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	2	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	-4	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	3	6
8	Sunrise	5	1	3	1	-3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	1	2	2	-3	5
10	Police	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	APR	1	1	0	0	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	3
15	Musanze	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	0	1	1	-1	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al Hilal Omdurman win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.