· Analysis updated 21:24 UTC
Al Hilal Omdurman vs Rayon Sports Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al Hilal Omdurman and 1.04 for Rayon Sports, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Al Hilal Omdurman and 1.04 for Rayon Sports, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–011.5%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sidama Bunna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
Rayon Sports
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Bulls Maputo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Black Bulls Maputo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthère · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · Al Hilal Omdurman 0-1 Rayon Sports (CECAFA Club Cup)
- 2026-02-25T13:30:00.000Z · Al Hilal Omdurman 1-1 Rayon Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2026-01-17T15:30:00.000Z · Al Hilal Omdurman 4-0 Rayon Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2019-08-25T17:35:00.000Z · Al Hilal Omdurman 0-0 Rayon Sports (CAF Champions League)
- 2019-08-11T13:00:00.000Z · Al Hilal Omdurman 1-1 Rayon Sports (CAF Champions League)
CECAFA Club Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayon Sports | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | GOR Mahia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Jamus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | APR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Simba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Singida Black Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Tusker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mogadishu City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | KVZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.