Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium · Analysis updated 23:26 UTC
Al Ittifaq Maqaba vs Al Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Ittifaq Maqaba and 1.22 for Al Ahli, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Al Ittifaq Maqaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ittifaq Maqaba win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ittifaq Maqaba home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahli away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ittifaq Maqaba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Al Ittifaq Maqaba and 1.22 for Al Ahli, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Al Ittifaq Maqaba
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-02-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-02-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-2 (L)
Al Ahli
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaiya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ittifaq Maqaba win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.