· Analysis updated 00:15 UTC
Al Ittifaq Maqaba vs Khalidiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Ittifaq Maqaba and 4.25 for Khalidiya, a combined total of 5.25. That distribution gives Khalidiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khalidiya win
89.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 4.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ittifaq Maqaba home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Khalidiya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khalidiya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 4% / 7% / 89% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Al Ittifaq Maqaba and 4.25 for Khalidiya, a combined 5.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
11%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–47.1%
- 1–47.1%
- 0–36.7%
- 1–36.7%
- 0–56.1%
Recent form
Al Ittifaq Maqaba
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-02-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-02-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-2 (L)
Khalidiya
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs A'Ali · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khalidiya win, at 89.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.