King Abdullah Sports City · Referee A. Al Harbi · Analysis updated 05:03 UTC
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.75 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Al-Ittihad FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Ittihad FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Hazm away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–017.4%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Al-Ittihad FC
- 2026-10-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-1 (D)
Al-Hazm
- 2026-10-22T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fayha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fateh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:50:00.000Z · H vs NEOM · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2026-04-03T16:15:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2026-02-24T19:00:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2024-04-20T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2023-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 2-2 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2022-03-18T15:05:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2021-10-28T15:05:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2020-03-05T14:45:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2019-10-04T17:10:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 1-2 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
- 2019-03-16T12:00:00.000Z · Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Hazm (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.