Alinma Stadium · Referee Ilgiz Tantashev · Analysis updated 08:11 UTC
Al-Ittihad FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.39 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Ittihad FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.39 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Al-Ittihad FC
- 2026-10-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-1 (D)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.