Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium · Referee E. Lambrechts · Analysis updated 08:38 UTC
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.16 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Al Ain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ain win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 21% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.16 for Al Ain, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–36.7%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Al Ain
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Ajman · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ain win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.