Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium · Analysis updated 10:58 UTC
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.03 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Al-Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Jazira win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Jazira away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.03 for Al-Jazira, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 51%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.3%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 49.5% vs market 45.3%, edge +4.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +4.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.70 | 35.1% | 35.7% | 2.80 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.40 | 64.1% | 64.3% | 1.56 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 84.6% | 84.8% | 1.18 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.4% | 20.5% | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 5.80 | 15.5% | 15.2% | 6.58 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 79.5% | 1.26 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -4.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Al-Jazira
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Jazira win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.