Aleppo International Stadium · Analysis updated 17:08 UTC
Al Ittihad vs Bangladesh Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al Ittihad and 0.93 for Bangladesh Police, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Al Ittihad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ittihad win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ittihad home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bangladesh Police away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ittihad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Al Ittihad and 0.93 for Bangladesh Police, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.8%
Recent form
Al Ittihad
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh Police · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaish · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabala · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hottin · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda · 1-1 (D)
Bangladesh Police
- 2026-10-10T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Fakirerpool · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs City Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattogram · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahmatgonj MFS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wathba | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manila Digger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Pusamania Borneo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Ansar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nejmeh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Regar-TadAZ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Fortis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Kasuka | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Hang Yuen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Paro | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Yangon United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Shan United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Ahal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Goa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Istiqlol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Tainan City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 19 | Central Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Dordoi Bishkek | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Ezra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Karketu Dili | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Ulaanbaatar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Bangladesh Police | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Muras United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Abu Muslim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Maziya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Al Arabi | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ittihad win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.