Aleppo International Stadium · Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Al Ittihad vs Omaya SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al Ittihad and 0.87 for Omaya SC, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Al Ittihad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ittihad win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ittihad home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Omaya SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ittihad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Al Ittihad and 0.87 for Omaya SC, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Al Ittihad
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh Police · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaish · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabala · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hottin · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda · 1-1 (D)
Omaya SC
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Karama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shorta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shouleh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taliya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tishreen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Shorta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Hottin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Horriya | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Jaish | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Qamishli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Taliya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ittihad win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.