· Analysis updated 18:56 UTC
Al Jazeera vs Al Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al Jazeera and 1.15 for Al Ahli, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Al Jazeera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Jazeera home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahli away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Jazeera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Al Jazeera and 1.15 for Al Ahli, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Al Jazeera
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al Ordon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Hussein · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Salt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al Ordon · 1-3 (L)
Al Ahli
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wihdat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama Al Sarhan · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Buqa'a | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Al Wihdat | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Al Jazeera | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Ramtha | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Hussein | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Salt | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Doqarah | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Arabi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Shabab Al Ordon | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.