· Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Al Jazira Al Hamra vs Forte Virtus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Jazira Al Hamra and 1.18 for Forte Virtus, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Al Jazira Al Hamra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Jazira Al Hamra home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Jazira Al Hamra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Al Jazira Al Hamra and 1.18 for Forte Virtus, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Al Jazira Al Hamra
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Thaid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dibba Al-Fujairah · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Fujairah SC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Forte Virtus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Gulf United · 0-2 (L)
Forte Virtus
- 2026-09-23T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazira Al Hamra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Palm City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:05:00.000Z · H vs Dibba Al Hisn · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Hamriyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Emirates Club · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Presidents Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Urooba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Fujairah SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Arabi | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Palm City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Ittifaq | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Khorfakkan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Wahda FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Al-Jazira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Baniyas SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hatta SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Sharjah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Thaid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Dibba Al Hisn | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Al Ain | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Al-Dhafra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Emirates Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Al Hamriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Ajman | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Al Nasr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Dubai City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Dubai United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Forte Virtus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Gulf United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Al Bataeh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.