Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium · Referee O. Alali · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Al-Jazira vs Ajman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.10 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Al-Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Jazira win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Jazira home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ajman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 16% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Al-Jazira and 1.10 for Ajman, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.3%
- 1–16.9%
Recent form
Al-Jazira
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 3-1 (W)
Ajman
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Sharjah FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Dhafra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Jazira win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.