· Analysis updated 19:53 UTC
Al Jazira vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Al Jazira and 0.95 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Al Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Jazira win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Jazira home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sahel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Al Jazira and 0.95 for Al Sahel, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 2–010.4%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Al Jazira
- 2026-10-24T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Sporty · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Shamiya · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T14:50:00.000Z · A vs Burgan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-0 (W)
Al Sahel
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Jazira win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.